A decrease in interest rates was no doubtThey are now part of a logic of social responsibilityOfmouth can be positive but also negativeIt is difficult France to claim liberal Clearly all identified those that must be movingBut growth slows with the bleak conditionsThat will permanently vanish for negative voteTherefore all is not lost for BNP ParibasThe truth does not necessarily from the mouth of the first to speak outA friendly pressureDuring the campaign Barack Obama promised to reduce by 2020 the UThis time, the national Institute of statistics and economic studies (Insee) is ready to use the word, write it, and even in the plural: entitled memo on the economy that he published this morning "Recessions", Insee abandons the prejudices that, two months ago, he did appreciate the Word still too "heavy" and "premature employment." "Early 2009, almost all of the industrialized countries be in a recession", now describes the Insee, which updates its forecasts and extends until June 2009. In France, the activity should plunge of 0.8 in the fourth quarter. Two months ago, the Institute did not give 10 probability to this prediction come true. "The scale is equivalent to that of 1993," it now says: "the tightening of financing conditions and the increase of the risk aversion push companies to slash their spending on investment and greatly reduce their stocks."
Industrial failure linked largely to of destocking confirmed by the October figures, would quickly broadcast employment (see below) and the consumption of households, that disinflation would that partially to preserve. Despite the slight rebound of activity last summer, the France would in fact entered into recession in the second quarter this year. "Between the peak of the first half of 2008 and the hollow of the first half of 2009, the French economy will have lost more than 1 point of GDP," says Eric Dubois, head of the Department of the State of the Insee.
A basis fell by 1.1.
The Government, just complete the review in the Parliament of the budget 2009 based on a forecast of growth of 0.2 to 0.5, is embarrassed. For 2009, I think that no European country will avoid recession." "Hopefully be very close to balance", stated yesterday on Europe 1, François Fillon. But to add immediately, about the Government forecast: "what is will it be a little bit below" It is very difficult to say today. "Late June, the acquis of growth (growth, 2009 if the rest activity spreads in the second half) would show a decline of 1.1. Which refers to the records of 1975 ( 1) and 1993 ( 0.9). It should be, said Insee, a growth of 1.2 in the third and then in the fourth quarter to reach, only a stagnation in activity next year.
The debate is also launched the effects of the stimulus package announced on December 4 by Nicolas Sarkozy (read here). According to the Insee, the activity transfer still 0.4 in the first quarter of 2009, before to stabilize ( 0.1) in the second quarter. The decline would be amortized by implementing premium automotive case-sensitive, public investment and the premium of active solidarity, which would bring 0.3 point of growth in the year. However, "essentially must be experienced in the second half," notes Eric Dubois. "It is our assumption, it may seem overly cautious.
For Bercy, the stimulus and the automatic stabilizers (letting social spending and deficits, their role of crisis damper) will bring 1 point from growth in the whole of the year and foreign plans half a percentage point. But "the effectiveness of stimulus is more difficult to assess that to the usual, j. the Insee. "It may be weakened if the households and businesses retain a hesitant behavior of expenditure". It can also be "strengthened if these stimulus plans allow a restoration of confidence." A second hypothesis now unlikely.