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Their year end goal has also been revised 1

Yesterday, the paradox of the dollar was striking. The good news, especially those from the United States, penalize the greenback. Yesterday, for the first time since late September, the dollar index, which reflects the value of the US dollar against a basket of six currencies, fell under 78 points. With the exception of the yen, five currencies component this basket are at least at their most high of the year. Increasing for three days, the euro broke the record for the month of June, by touching a Summit 1,4445 dollar at the meeting, representing an increase of 1.42. The single currency had not crossed the threshold of 1.44 dollar since September 2008. The pound sterling it is powered by 1.75 to 1,6988 dollar. The Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc are also on their highest annual points. The basket component index dollar, the currency say "high performance", including those related to raw materials, are also at the pinnacle.

The evolution of the dollar is apparently disconnected from improving economic fundamentals and the results of enterprises. The prospect of an output of recession only reinforces the downward trend. The publication of the IMS in the manufacturing sector in the United States, yesterday, again illustrated this phenomenon: revealed to 48.9 points, well above the expectations of economists, index accelerated the fall of the greenback. "After this indicator, we would be surprised if us production was not being advanced for the first time since October, monthly rate, in August", has shunned the ING team. But for the moment, strategists anticipate not rapid normalization of the foreign exchange market. "Even if the prospects for economic recovery in the United States show that the monetary and fiscal policy is appropriate, it is too early for a change: the increase in the stock market continues to be a negative factor for the dollar", says Ulrich Leuchtmann in Dresdner and Commerzbank. In fact, yesterday, stock prices soared.

A stable correlation

Since January, increasing signs global actions has been associated with a fall in the dollar, with a high correlation between 40 and 60, says a recent study by HSBC. Rarely in history, the correlation was also stable. It is based on the last summer, when markets have given up believing in the decoupling of economies. Until early March 2009, the dollar climbed while the stock market first. The greenback enjoying its safe haven status, and therefore of repatriation of capital to the US domestic market. By contrast, emerging markets suffered then output massive capital.

Currently, strategists believe the reverse movement is initiated: the appetite for risk results in investment flows to assets offering of higher yields. "Volatile currencies should register strong performance and capital flowing to emerging markets," says the team of Bank of America - Merrill Lynch, which now supports the idea of a strong appreciation of emerging currencies and related raw materials before 2010. Last week, the Bank strategists felt also that September, the euro should exchange against 1.45 dollar instead of 1.32 initially expected dollar. Their year end goal has also been revised, 1.38 to 1.50 dollar.