They are now part of a logic of social responsibilityOfmouth can be positive but also negativeIt is difficult France to claim liberal Clearly all identified those that must be movingBut growth slows with the bleak conditionsThat will permanently vanish for negative voteTherefore all is not lost for BNP ParibasThe truth does not necessarily from the mouth of the first to speak outA friendly pressureDuring the campaign Barack Obama promised to reduce by 2020 the UUniversities would like to apply a rate of 5The US Federal Reserve (Fed) made yesterday evening's final verdict of monetary policy of the year (see page 6). A decrease in interest rates was no doubt. But the institution has opted for an unexpected form, with a refinance rate lowered within a range from 0 to 0.25. The rent money was previously set at 1. Stakeholders expect something a little less aggressive yesterday, even if they are positioned on a 0 rate scenario in the coming months.
Following this announcement, the greenback accelerated its fall. The euro is thus powered evening over 1.40 dollar. He had not reached such heights more than two months. On the other hand, the bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices are relaxed. The rate in 2 years, which depends on the monetary policy further, assigned 9 points last night, 0,645. A historically low level. Earlier in the day, it is tended slightly. Decrease potential appears limited, in view of the now tiny margin of manoeuvre of the Federal Reserve on interest rates.
The performance of State borrowing to 10 years is collapsed to 2,277, its lowest level in nearly 50 years. The comments of the Committee of possible massive purchases of sovereign debt of long-term monetary policy provided additional support to these titles. Ben Bernanke, the Fed boss, had suggested at the beginning of months that the institution could intervene to prevent a rise in long rates. Rate in 30 years a little more sank under the bar from 3 to 2.798.
This configuration a rate refinancing reaching a floor and likely long-maturity securities purchases augurs for a tightening of the gap between short and long rate on us markets. The experts speak "flattening of the yield curve", phenomenon which is already at work since November.
The spectrum of a crash
This phenomenon and despite the rebound yesterday evening, the possibility of a continuation of rising the fact us bond market debate. Groupama Asset Management team considers that, despite the low rates, the context of recession, the decline in inflation and the climate of risk aversion are always favourable to the obligations.
"The situation is dangerous." We are facing a bond bubble in the United States, is concerned, for its part, René Defossez, at Natixis. When volatility will decline and sovereign debt emissions massively will arrive, the Fed will not be able to support only the bond by its procurement market.
The behaviour of China is in the heart of the questions. As the report of the US Treasury has shown Monday, is the first holder of U.S. debt, before the Japan. But the Asian giant is also in trouble: several analysts have revised their growth forecasts downward from 8.5 to 6 for 2009. The recently announced Chinese stimulus plan represents 580 billion or 14 of GDP.
"China has no doubt sufficient reserves to fund its impressive tax device, but perhaps not enough to continue funding the United States", warns Véronique rich-Flores, in Société Générale. The Economist pointed out that, even if it is a little increase, the U.S. savings rate pales to the needs of financing of the United States, including the stimulus measures are estimated at 2,000 billion. The spectrum of a bond crash is perhaps not far from reappearing on the markets.