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Therefore all is not lost for BNP Paribas

The decision should be taken yesterday by the Board of Directors of Fortis Holding. Extraordinary general meetings of April 8 and 9 may be carried over to the 28 and 29 April, dates for ordinary annual general meetings of the group. The announcement, if it is confirmed, follows the new Court Theatre reached kick Tuesday by a judgment of the Court of appeal of Brussels. Giving reason to a use of the law firm of Modrikamen, stipulates that only shareholders holding Fortis shares on October 14 will have the right to vote at the next General Assembly in Brussels. If the choice to a third-party opposition to the judgment of the Court of appeal was therefore abandoned by the lawyers of Fortis, the report based mainly on practical problems of recount of the voting rights is home to a size issue.

At these general assemblies, the shareholders of Fortis speak on the agreement between the Belgian State, Fortis Holding and BNP Paribas on March 12. A reminder, this third version of the agreements signed in October at the Fortis rescue provides the acquisition by BNP Paribas of 75 of the shares in Fortis Bank to the Belgian State and 25 of the shares in Fortis Insurance Belgium to Fortis Holding. Concluded after a lengthening of the period of negotiations, this new agreement was then perseverance of BNP Paribas in the folder.

All is not lost

Perseverance at the calculated risk. The Bank was indeed looking forward to see the perimeter of the voting extended at the next General Assembly. An enlargement which would permit according to the Belgian lawyer Mischaƫl Modrikamen "friends" BNP Paribas who bought shares after October 14 (including a "hedge-funds") to take part in the vote. The consequences could be important for the French Bank. "Insofar as subsequent buyers (October 14, Editor's note) are alleged mostly favourable to reconciliation, the success of BNP Paribas at the next General Assembly seems less obvious", is the Raymond James Euro Equities Office.

However, some elements can still play for the French Bank. First, shareholders who did not share in the vote of the General Assembly of 11 February should speak to the next. Among them: the Dutch ABP and PGGM pension funds. If no one can presume their votes, their involvement with 2 of the vote, will in any case be decisive. The "no" was passed narrowly with 50.1 of the vote. Then, the Chinese Ping An, with 4.8 of the voting rights, could also all switch. His decision could be announced as early as this morning. February 11, he rejected the transaction.

Finally, as Kepler Capital Markets analyst, although it is returned to the situation of before February 11, the difference is that the shareholders will be drawn to vote "on a significantly better transaction." Several major Belgian families now support the new version. Therefore, all is not lost for BNP Paribas. But this new coup de theatre recalled how this redemption is an obstacle course. Opponents are persistent and as the note Raymond James Euro Equities, the decision of the Court of appeal "gives a foretaste of the risk of legal warfare that BNP Paribas is vulnerable if it takes control of Fortis".